Could Cardano Hit $1? Increased Whale Wallet Holdings and 90% ETF Approval Odds to Bolster ADA’s Price

Cardano (ADA), the tenth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is showing strong momentum after its price broke past its long-time resistance near $0.74. ADA has surged over 6% in the last 24 hours, and 26% over the past week, setting the stage for a potential rally beyond the coveted $1.

Cardano’s latest rally is tied to growing institutional interest and increased accumulation among whale wallets.

Cardano Whales Expect Further Price Rally as they Accumulate More Without Selling

The number of coins held by wallets with between 1 million and 10 million ADA has grown substantially, going from 33% in January to 36.15% by July. These whales did not sell even when Cardano experienced a sharp rally in March, indicating that its biggest holders expect further upside.

The whale wallets, whose behavior often influences market directions, have purchased 120 million ADA, worth nearly $90 million, since June 25, and they control 15.4% of Cardano’s total 35.39 billion circulating supply.

ADA’s Spent Coins Age, a metric that measures how long coins remain in wallets before being moved, spiked briefly last month, but it has since dropped to lower levels. This means that older coins aren’t being sold, and most long-term holders are sitting still this time around – a typical bullish signal during uptrends.

Another curious case is that when this metric spiked twice, first in early April and then in mid-June, it did not align with major price hikes for ADA. This means that the selling activity initiated by older wallets in those periods wasn’t aimed at profit-taking, which could be a positive sign for a market that is moving upwards, as there aren’t many sellers eager to dumb their tokens.

Bloomberg Analysts 90% Confident of the SEC Greenlighting a US Spot Cardano ETF in 2025

Yet another positive indicator for Cardano’s price came from Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who last month raised their odds for the potential approval of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by multiple altcoins, including ADA, XRP, LTC, SOL, and DOGE, to 90% or higher.

The analysts noted in a series of X posts that back-and-forth communications between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have increased, which is often viewed as a good sign.

Grayscale, known for its spot Bitcoin (GBTC) and Ethereum ETFs (ETHE), filed an application with the SEC for a Cardano-backed investment vehicle in February, and the updated odds suggest it could be among the altcoin ETFs set to launch in the United States by the year-end. The regulatory watchdog recently updated its guidelines to categorize digital assets issued on permissionless blockchains as commodities rather than securities, essentially easing previous regulatory hurdles.

Also Read: Ripple Drops Appeal Against SEC

Grayscale Increasingly Bullish on ADA, Increases Allocations in Two Publicly Traded Crypto Funds

Recently, ADA was added to the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), a publicly traded investment vehicle holding a basket of large-cap digital assets, including BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL. The fund maintains more than 90% of its portfolio in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with altcoins making up the rest of the allocation.

GDLC, priced at $51.49, has over $855 million in assets under management (AUM) from 15.86 million outstanding shares. Cardano accounts for 0.88% of the fund’s weight at 0.65 ADA per share.

Grayscale, which is increasingly bullish on Cardano, has also increased its ADA allocation in the Grayscale Smart Contract Fund. Cardano is now the third-largest asset in the vehicle that holds six cryptocurrencies native to smart contract-powered blockchains – ETH, SOL, ADA, SUI, AVAX, and HBAR, accounting for 19.21% of its allocation, ranking just behind Ethereum (30.3%) and Solana (26.93%).

ADA Price can Hit $1.08 if it Successfully Gets Past the $0.77 to $0.78 Resistance Zone

ADA, alongside XRP and BTC, have been the top-performing cryptocurrencies in the past week, gaining 29% in value during that time. Its price currently sits just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.72. 

The next big test for the coin is a dual resistance zone between $0.77 and $0.78. If it can break through those levels, then there is not much standing in the way until the $0.86 mark. From there, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension targets $1.08, which, if attained, will be a 46% increase from its current price.

With whales continuing to accumulate more coins without selling, increased institutional interest, and overwhelming odds of a potential spot ETF approval, the chances of ADA marching towards $1.08 are looking pretty solid. However, traders need to keep an eye on $0.72 because if it dips below that level, then its price could retest the $0.68 support, dismissing the bullish sentiment.

At the time of writing, Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.7405, up 2.25% in the last 24 hours.